Topic guide · The exit story

Why Americans Are Moving Abroad in 2026

The 30-second version. More Americans are moving abroad than at any point in the past two decades — somewhere between 5 and 9 million now live overseas by State Department estimates, with strong year-over-year acceleration since 2020. The drivers cluster more around healthcare cost, housing affordability, and career portability than around politics, though political/values factors are the strongest single driver for a meaningful subset of movers. Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Costa Rica, Italy, and Greece are the most popular destinations among recent movers. Most expats don't regret the move; the ones who do typically didn't commit deeply enough to one place. This guide is the honest version of why, where, and who.

The cultural conversation about Americans leaving the US has shifted multiple times in the past decade. It was a punchline in the early 2010s, an Instagram aesthetic in the mid-2010s, a pandemic-driven exodus story in 2020–2021, and a political-anxiety narrative through the 2024 election cycle. None of those framings fully capture what's actually happening on the ground in 2026.

The picture on the ground is more interesting than any of those framings — more practical, more demographically varied, and considerably more grounded in mechanical considerations like healthcare cost and visa accessibility than the punchier explanations admit. Most Americans who actually move abroad in 2026 do so because the math works for them specifically, not because the country has become uninhabitable. They are not Twitter caricatures. They are nurses retiring to Portugal because Medicare doesn't cover them outside the US and their Lisbon insurance costs less than their US copays. They are software engineers moving to Czechia because their effective tax rate drops by 20 points. They are families with college-age kids moving to Ireland to unlock EU university tuition. They are 60-year-olds with $150,000/year of passive income who realized Greece's 7% flat tax saves them $20,000/year.

This guide is the honest account of who is moving, where, and why — and what the data, the surveys, and the moves themselves actually show. Written for anyone seriously considering leaving who'd rather understand the picture than be confirmed in their priors.

How many Americans actually move abroad

The State Department's most recent published estimates place between 5 and 9 million US citizens living abroad in 2024–2025, up from 3–4 million two decades ago. The wide range reflects measurement difficulty — there's no central registry. The number includes:

• Long-term retirees abroad (estimated 1.5–2.5 million, with Mexico hosting the largest single concentration).
• Mid-career professionals on long-term residence or naturalized in foreign countries.
• Spouses and children of foreign nationals living abroad.
• US-born dual citizens living in their parents' country.
• Short-stay nomads, expats on multi-year contracts, and students.

Trend indicators that are more reliable than the State Department headline number:

• Federal Voting Assistance Program registrations have grown steadily year-on-year since 2018.
• New US consular registrations in Portugal, Spain, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Italy have set records in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
• Foreign government residency-grant data: Portugal AIMA processed substantially more US residence applications in 2023 and 2024 than in any prior year. Mexico's INM data shows similar patterns. Costa Rica's Pensionado grants have grown 30%+ over five years.
• US passport renewals from abroad have grown materially.

The aggregate direction is clear: more Americans are moving abroad and more are staying than at any point in recent memory.

The five clusters of why

The motivations cluster differently than partisan media suggests. From surveys of recent expat departures and the GTFO planning data itself, five non-exclusive clusters dominate:

1. Healthcare cost and Medicare gap (largest single driver among 55+ movers)

The simple math: a year of comprehensive private health insurance for a 60-year-old single American on the ACA marketplace runs $11,000–$18,000 before deductibles, with thousands more in copays. The same care in Portugal costs €60–€150/month — under $2,000/year. At age 65, when Medicare kicks in but doesn't cover care outside the US, the differential is even starker.

For Americans in the 55–70 age window with pre-retirement income but still 5+ years from Medicare, moving abroad to access universal European or strong Latin American private healthcare is increasingly the rational economic choice. The math compounds further when you factor in long-term-care costs, which Medicare covers minimally and US private long-term-care insurance has largely stopped offering.

This is the single most-cited motivation among American retirees moving to Portugal, Spain, Italy, Costa Rica, Panama, and Mexico in surveys.

See healthcare abroad for Americans for the deep dive.

2. Cost of living and housing affordability

Real wages have not kept pace with US housing-cost growth in major metropolitan areas. A 1-bedroom apartment in central Lisbon at €1,400/month is still expensive but represents a 50–70% reduction from equivalent space in Boston, San Francisco, or Manhattan. The same dynamic applies more dramatically to Mexico City, Mexico beach towns, smaller European cities, and most of Central America.

For mid-career remote workers earning US-level salaries from US clients, the cost arbitrage is meaningful — a $120,000/year US software engineer relocating to Mexico City or Lisbon often experiences a measurable lifestyle upgrade at the same nominal income.

For retirees on Social Security plus modest pension income, the arbitrage is the difference between a constrained US retirement (groceries-and-rent tight) and a comfortable expat retirement (groceries, rent, healthcare, travel, dining all manageable).

3. Career portability and the post-pandemic remote-work shift

The pandemic permanently changed what work-from-anywhere actually means. Many companies that quietly tolerated employees relocating internationally during 2020–2021 have institutionalized that flexibility. Digital nomad visas in dozens of countries have created legal pathways for what was previously a grey-area practice.

This cluster of motivation is largest among 30–45-year-olds with portable skills (tech, design, consulting, media, finance). They're not necessarily leaving the US permanently — many treat it as a 2–7 year window during their highest career-portability years. Some return; some put down roots; some keep moving.

4. Family, relationship, and dual-citizenship factors

A meaningful fraction of American expatriates move because of family — non-US spouses, kids in college abroad, aging parents abroad, dual-citizenship optionality, second-passport access through descent (Irish, Italian, German, Polish ancestry are the most common American descent claims).

This cluster is the most heterogeneous and often invisible in policy debates because it's deeply personal rather than ideological.

5. Political and values factors

This is the cluster that gets the most media attention and is also the most variable across time. Survey data suggests political factors are the strongest driver for perhaps 15–25% of recent American expat moves — a substantial minority, not a majority.

The political-driver cluster has several sub-shapes:

• Reproductive-healthcare-driven moves (women of childbearing age in post-Dobbs states moving to protect reproductive autonomy for themselves or their daughters).
• LGBTQ-family-driven moves (families with LGBTQ kids or adults moving for legal-recognition and social-climate reasons).
• Climate-anxiety-driven moves (moves driven by concerns about US institutional resilience and political stability).
• Lifestyle-political-values moves (moves driven by preferences for European/social-democratic governance over US institutional patterns).

The fraction has grown post-2024. It's not the majority, but it's a substantial and growing minority of movers.

Where Americans are actually moving

By total American expatriate population (2024–2025 estimates):

1. Mexico — ~1.6 million Americans. Largest American expat community in the world. Mostly retirees and remote workers.
2. Canada — ~750,000. Significant cross-border mobility.
3. UK — ~200,000. Long-established American expat community.
4. Germany — ~120,000. Substantial military and tech presence; smaller civilian expat community.
5. France — ~110,000.
6. Israel — ~200,000+ (with substantial dual-citizen overlap).
7. Australia — ~95,000.
8. Spain — ~50,000 (growing rapidly).
9. Italy — ~50,000.
10. Costa Rica — ~50,000.
11. Philippines — substantial population including many retirees.
12. Portugal — ~30,000 (growing rapidly; estimates are imprecise).
13. Japan, Thailand, Brazil, Panama, Greece — each between 10,000 and 30,000.

By growth rate among recent movers (last 5 years):

1. Portugal — strongest growth percentage.
2. Spain — DNV launch attracted substantial flow.
3. Mexico — already large, still growing.
4. Costa Rica — sustained growth.
5. Italy — both ERV and jure sanguinis flows.
6. Greece — fastest-growing newer destination.
7. Czech Republic — quiet but real growth in nomad-friendly residence.
8. Croatia — DNV-driven.
9. Panama — Friendly Nations Visa.
10. Malta — small but growing.

The pattern: established large destinations continue to attract retirees and family-driven moves; newer/smaller destinations are gaining share among remote workers and high-net-worth retirees who've optimized for tax and lifestyle math beyond the obvious picks.

The profiles of who is moving

Several distinct profiles dominate the 2026 expat flow. These aren't exhaustive but cover most actual moves:

The pre-retirement professional (largest single profile)

Age 50–63. Substantial pension or 401k position. Healthcare-cost-motivated. Pre-Medicare gap drives the timing. Most common destinations: Portugal, Mexico, Costa Rica, Spain, Italy.

The mid-career remote worker

Age 30–45. Portable skills (tech, design, consulting). Tax-and-cost-arbitrage-motivated as much as lifestyle. Often a 3–7 year window rather than a permanent move. Most common destinations: Portugal, Mexico City, Spain, Czechia, Bali, Buenos Aires, Lisbon, Barcelona.

The retiree on Social Security plus modest pension

Age 62–75. Lower income; financially constrained in the US. Healthcare cost is acute. Cost-of-living drives destination choice. Most common destinations: Mexico (Lake Chapala, Mérida, smaller Pacific coast), Costa Rica, Ecuador, Portugal D7-tier, Panama Pensionado.

The family with school-age kids

Age 35–50. School-quality, healthcare, and lifestyle drive destination choice. International-school availability is often a gating constraint. Most common destinations: Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Costa Rica, Mexico City.

The descent-citizenship optimizer

Variable age. Has documented EU ancestry (Irish, Italian, German, Polish most common). Pursues citizenship-by-descent first, then relocates with EU passport in hand. Often a longer-time-horizon move. See citizenship by descent for Americans.

The political/values-motivated mover

Variable age and income. Lower fraction of total but most-discussed in media. Often moves with more time-pressure and less lifestyle research than other clusters. Most common destinations: Portugal, Spain, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, UK.

The high-net-worth tax optimizer

Age 55+. Substantial passive income ($150K+/year). Optimizes specifically for tax regimes — Italy's 7% small-town regime, Greece's Article 5A 7% regime, Malta's remittance basis, Portugal's now-closed NHR. Most common destinations: Greece (FIP + Article 5A), Italy (ERV + 7% regime), Malta (Global Residence Programme), Switzerland (lump-sum), UAE.

The single woman moving solo

Growing fraction. Age 35–65. Often prioritizes safety, walkability, healthcare access, and community. See best countries for single women moving abroad.

What the data and the surveys actually show about satisfaction

Long-term-expat satisfaction surveys (5+ years abroad) consistently show 70–85% reporting they're satisfied with the move and would do it again. The 15–30% who report regret cluster around three things:

1. Distance from US family during major events. The thing nobody fully prepares for: parents getting sick, friends having weddings or funerals, the inability to be present for the moments that matter most to relationships. Time-zone-friendly destinations (Mexico, Costa Rica, Canada) score better here than Europe; Asia scores worst.
2. Social-integration friction in years 1–3. Most expats describe the first year as the hardest and the third year as the turning point. Destinations with strong existing American expat communities (Portugal, Costa Rica, Mexico) help with this; immersion-only destinations (rural Italy, Czech smaller cities) are harder.
3. Administrative friction underestimated. Banking, tax compliance, visa renewals, healthcare-system navigation. The first 2 years are particularly heavy; experienced expats develop systems and rhythms.

The pattern: moves that work best are typically the moves with the deepest commitment to one specific place — picking a country and digging in. Nomading short stints across many countries shows lower long-term satisfaction in survey data.

The honest case for staying in the US

GTFO is a planning app for Americans considering moving abroad, but the honest answer is that staying makes sense for a meaningful fraction of people who consider leaving. The case:

• The US has the deepest labor market for high-skilled workers. Tech, finance, medicine, law, academia, and certain creative industries pay materially more in the US than anywhere else. Career-portable knowledge work has narrowed this gap somewhat but it remains real.
• The US dollar's reserve-currency status creates planning advantages. Many of the financial-planning tools (Social Security mobility, IRA/401k structures, US brokerage products) work best from US residence.
• Geographic and lifestyle diversity within the US is genuinely vast. Vermont and Texas are different countries in practical terms; Hawaii, Alaska, the South, New England, the Mountain West, the Pacific Northwest each offer distinct lifestyles.
• English-language network density. Family, friends, professional networks, healthcare familiarity, institutional fluency — these matter and are dramatically more efficient in your home country.
• Health system familiarity and Medicare optionality at 65. Once Medicare eligibility activates, the US healthcare math becomes very different (still expensive at the margin, but coverage is reliable).
• State-level diversity creates "leave your state" options. For many Americans, moving from California to Texas, from Florida to Vermont, or from a high-cost-of-living urban core to a small city in the same region accomplishes much of what an international move offers without the disruption.

The case for leaving is strongest at the income margins, age 55–65, in high-cost-of-living US states, with portable income or pre-Medicare healthcare cost-pressure. The case for staying is strongest in the income center (well-compensated professionals 35–55) and in life stages anchored to family or networks in the US.

What this means for your planning

If you're seriously considering leaving the US in 2026:

• Verify the financial math. Don't move because you read about Portugal in a magazine — run your specific numbers for your specific destination including visa pathway, healthcare structure, US-side tax position, and 5-year cost-of-living projection.
• Test the move before committing. Spend 1–3 months in your target country before signing a 12-month lease or buying property. Visit in the worst season (winter rain in Portugal, summer heat in Spain, monsoon in Costa Rica) before deciding.
• Pick one place and dig in. Survey data consistently shows that long-term-satisfaction is higher among expats who commit to one specific place rather than nomading.
• Plan for the social-integration curve. Years 1–3 are the hardest. Build in patience, infrastructure for keeping US relationships, and structured social engagement in the new country.
• Don't underestimate administrative friction. Banking, tax filing, visa renewals, healthcare enrollment, mail forwarding, US-account maintenance. Budget 100+ hours/year in years 1–2; less afterward.

Build your plan with GTFO

GTFO is the planning app for Americans seriously considering this. Not a relocation firm, not selling visa packages, not taking affiliate fees on the providers we list — just the planning layer above the noise.

If you're still in the "is this realistic for me" phase, the country quiz scores 49 destinations against your specific income, family, and lifestyle shape in three minutes. Real reasons each came up.

If you've picked a country, Compass turns the move into a working timeline anchored to your departure date — visa application sequence, document apostille bottlenecks, tax-relevant deadlines, pet import lead times, kids' school applications. The full plan that knows your specific situation.

How to leave the US covers the universal pre-move structure. The 12-month moving abroad checklist is the sequenced version of the same. US taxes for expats, healthcare abroad for Americans, and US banking and investing as an expat cover the cross-country planning layer most movers underestimate.

Built by someone who actually moved.

Last verified: May 2026 · Numbers change. We re-check thresholds and timelines every quarter. Always confirm with the consulate or official government source before you act.

GTFO is built and maintained by Natasha — making the same move you're planning.